The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in October
As of October 28th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.12% compared to the price of 8466.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market fell from a high level and turned from strong to weak. In October, the isobutyraldehyde market was initially sideways at a high level, but fell back under pressure in the middle and late stages, turning from strong to weak, mainly dragging down the weakness of downstream neopentyl glycol from the main force; The supply side has device maintenance support, but the demand side lacks follow-up on buying orders, resulting in increased bargaining space for actual orders.
Cost side: limited support for propylene oscillation consolidation raw materials
On October 28th, the propylene price was 10927.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.57% compared to the propylene price of 9707.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, propylene fluctuated within a range without a unilateral surge, and there was no strong upward momentum on the cost side; At the same time, there was no deep drop, which formed a certain bottom support for isobutyraldehyde. Cost is not the main trend of this month’s market, and supply and demand (neopentyl glycol) are the main support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise and fall.
Demand side: New pentanediol drags down the market
The largest downstream consumption is neopentyl glycol. In October, the neopentyl glycol market continued to weaken, and major factories such as Wanhua lowered their quotations for bulk water for multiple rounds. The demand for polyester and powder coatings downstream of neopentyl glycol was flat, with average orders. The profit of neopentyl glycol factories was compressed, and they actively reduced the cost of raw material procurement, lowered prices, and purchased isobutyraldehyde according to demand. The market is’ afraid of heights+wait-and-see ‘, no longer chasing after price increases, buying only low-priced goods, and high priced transactions are stagnant.
Supply side: Partial maintenance, but expected incremental control
Isobutyraldehyde is a by-product of the co production of butanol and octanol, with production following the start of butanol and octanol production. There is little independent expansion, high industry concentration, and no large-scale shutdown maintenance; Part of the equipment is parked for maintenance, reducing some of the circulating goods and providing a bottom line for prices; In mid to late October, Wanhua Penglai isobutyraldehyde plant was successfully put into operation, with new production capacity added and maintenance equipment restarted, resulting in slow accumulation of shipping pressure. The expectation of loose supply directly suppressed the buying enthusiasm, and the bearish sentiment in the market significantly increased.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the main contradiction between supply and demand and cost in the future isobutyraldehyde market has not yet shown a reversal signal, and bearish factors still dominate. The incremental impact of Wanhua Penglai’s new production capacity, the expected restart of the Dawn device, and the supply side’s suppression of prices are likely to continue. On the demand side, it is difficult to see strong replenishment momentum for neopentyl glycol in the short term. The market for isobutyraldehyde is mainly weak, and there is still room for manufacturers to lower their quotes. Negotiations for actual orders continue to yield discounts. However, as propylene prices remain high, the cost side will continue to provide bottom support, and factories’ willingness to further significantly lower prices will be restrained. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future, but the downward trend may ease and the probability of a deep decline is limited.
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