Since October, the domestic EVA market has risen step by step. As of October 22nd, the benchmark price of EVA was 11633 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.44% from the beginning of the month at 11033 yuan/ton.
Recently, international crude oil has fluctuated and strengthened, and the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate have been supported and remain high, with cost support for EVA. As of October 22, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China is 9400 yuan/ton; As of October 22nd, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China is between 7400 and 7800 yuan/ton.
Since October, there has been strong support for EVA supply, with multiple sets of equipment undergoing centralized maintenance. The industry’s operating rate has fallen to around 60%, and the supply has tightened in stages. Petrochemicals have raised their ex factory prices, foam materials have led the market, and spot prices have rapidly surged.
After the price rises, downstream resistance is obvious. The production of foam shoe materials in the downstream is around 50%, and the production of head rubber film factories is around 5.5%. The overall production is low, and the market only needs to purchase urgently. EVA manufacturers have limited inventory, but the listing is firm, but there has been some relaxation in actual negotiations, and the market has shifted from a unilateral rise to a stable stalemate.
Looking ahead to the future, the current EVA maintenance equipment has not yet fully resumed production, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices under low inventory in petrochemicals. The expectation of photovoltaic materials rushing to work in the fourth quarter provides a bottom line, and EVA prices will remain high in the short term. In the medium to long term, with the gradual return of maintenance equipment and the gradual release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the expectation of loose supply in the long term will suppress bulls. If the cost side no longer supports it, EVA prices will fall sharply.
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