1、 Market price
On July 8th, the benchmark price of sulfur was 8669.00 yuan/ton. Compared with 8935.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1st), the cumulative decline this week has reached 2.98%. From the recent price trend, the sulfur market shows a clear trend of “stabilizing first and then falling”.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Society Spot Communication
Based on the core principles of the Business Society’s spot market analysis tool, combined with chart data analysis, the following is presented:
1. Moving average system signal:
At the beginning of the week, the price rose slightly, but was suppressed by the downward 20 day moving average, and then fell sharply for two consecutive days; The 10 day line is gradually approaching the 20 day line in the later stage, and the rate of decline has slowed down. Currently, the price is at a short-term low, and there is not much room for further significant decline. However, the two moving averages are still in a bearish pattern, and the upper moving averages will create strong resistance. In the short term, they will only fluctuate and grind to the bottom. If you want to turn up, you have to wait for the 10 day moving average to rise above the 20 day moving average.
2. Price in 5 tiers:
Despite a short-term decline, sulfur remains at a “median” or “medium high” level at the 30 day, 60 day, 90 day, and one-year levels. This means that from a long-term perspective, the current price has not collapsed and is still within the normal range of fluctuations for a pullback. There is still some support space below, but it also means that there is still pressure to hold onto the market above.
3、 Fundamental supply-demand analysis
The performance of sulfur and related industry chains this week is as follows:
1. Domestic sulfur: weak downward trend
Refinery dynamics: Major refineries in Shandong, North China, Northwest China, and other regions have not quoted prices, indicating that manufacturers lack confidence in the future market or have sufficient inventory pressure, and are unwilling to ship at low prices. Local refineries have generally lowered their prices, ranging from 100-600 yuan/ton, leading the market in decline. In the short term, the domestic sulfur market is expected to maintain high volatility and lack a strong rebound drive.
2. Port sulfur: stop falling and stabilize
Market sentiment: There is a lack of effective news on the port side, and industry players generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The trade atmosphere is quiet, and there is very little real interaction. Port prices have temporarily stabilized and are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term, waiting for new positive news to stimulate.
3. Downstream industrial chain
Sulfuric acid: The market is mainly stable, with local fluctuations (Jiangxi and Fujian fell, Yunnan rose), and overall support for sulfur costs is limited.
Phosphate fertilizer (monoammonium/diammonium): Both monoammonium and diammonium phosphate have shown weak demand, with weak follow-up on new orders. Downstream procurement willingness is not high, mainly shipping pending orders. This weak demand cannot provide effective cost transmission support to upstream sulfur.
Titanium dioxide: The market volatility is weak, and the terminal procurement is not active, further confirming the sluggish demand for chemical products at the terminal.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, this week’s sulfur market has been dragged down by weak downstream demand, resulting in a downward shift in price focus. On a technical level, the short-term moving average is in a bearish pattern, with downward momentum still present; However, given that the price has entered the “low” of the 10/20 day cycle, the space for further deep decline may be limited.
Short term forecast: It is expected that the sulfur market will be dominated by weak consolidation and high volatility at the beginning of next week. There is still a risk of domestic sulfur rebounding, while port sulfur may try to bottom out.
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