According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24642 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.83% from the zinc price of 24438 yuan/ton on February 24th.
The zinc price shows a narrow horizontal oscillation pattern, and the market is stuck in a long short stalemate. At the beginning of the week, prices were slightly under pressure due to inventory exceeding 200000 tons; Although there was cost support during the week, the slow resumption of downstream work resulted in weak upward momentum. Overall, the zinc market has been in a phase of strong supply and weak demand imbalance this week, but the potential for price decline is constrained by smelting costs, exhibiting a typical “top and bottom” characteristic.
Raw material end
The processing fees for imported minerals remain stable, while the supply of raw materials remains tight. In sharp contrast to the accumulation of inventory on the finished product side, the tense situation on the raw material side has not yet eased. This week, the mainstream processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate remained stable in the range of 1200-1500 yuan/metal ton, while the processing fee for imported ore was in a low and fluctuating pattern. Some mines in the northern region have not yet achieved full resumption of production, and coupled with limited supply of imported minerals, the situation of tight raw material supply has not changed. This pattern of “tight supply of raw materials and loose inventory of finished products” has greatly compressed the profit margin of the smelting process, but it also provides solid cost support for zinc prices.
Supply and demand side
The most prominent feature on the zinc supply side this week is the unexpected increase in social inventory, which has become a key factor in suppressing zinc prices. Currently, the social inventory has successfully surpassed the important threshold of 210000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, this inventory level is significantly higher – during the Spring Festival, the cumulative inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 49300 tons, and the increase was 12700 tons more than the same period last year. At the same time, the inventory of the previous period also showed a significant synchronous increase. The weekly inventory data released on February 27th showed that zinc inventory increased by 39027 tons this week. In the field of non-ferrous metals, this growth rate ranks among the top, fully reflecting the significant pressure on delivery warehouses to enter the inventory.
The spot trading market remains sluggish. This week, the spot market as a whole showed a significant feature of “active shipment by shippers and cautious procurement by receivers”. Holders of goods generally quote inflated prices while actual transactions are low-key. Even with multiple price cuts and price increases, market transactions remain weak. This “price for quantity” operation fully reflects the urgent willingness of traders to destocking under the pressure of inventory backlog. The recovery pace of downstream industries’ operating rates is slow, and the overall recovery progress is significantly slower than the same period in previous years.
comprehensive analysis
This week, the zinc market is struggling to maintain a balance amidst intense competition between accumulated inventory pressure and cost support. In the short term, the upward trend in prices lacks momentum due to the lack of coordinated cooperation from the demand side, and the downward trend is constrained by cost factors, making it difficult to deeply fall. The volatile pattern may be difficult to break in the short term. From a medium-term perspective, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches in March, if inventory can be smoothly reduced, zinc prices are expected to experience a temporary recovery trend.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in February, with an average price of 3431.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3418.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.77%.
Supply side: Fluorite manufacturers have more holidays and reduced spot supply
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased. However, the domestic fluorite market as a whole presents a weak supply-demand situation and a stalemate. Due to low temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, some mines are limited in operating, and flotation plants have more holidays. At the same time, the current market price has not met the psychological expectations of most mining enterprises and beneficiation plants, and the fluorite market has slightly risen.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid remained stable in February, with mainstream prices ranging from 12500-13000 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, while hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock. Despite being in the traditional stocking stage of downstream refrigerant and other industries, the high prices have suppressed procurement demand, thereby affecting the digestion rhythm of upstream raw materials. Fluorite prices have not changed much.
The overall stability and operation of the terminal refrigerant market have been maintained, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry have been strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and downstream channels mainly focus on stocking up for essential needs. Industry inventory has dropped to a low level in nearly two years; The supply side is constrained by the quota system, coupled with a highly concentrated industry share pattern, and market confidence remains stable. However, a cautious attitude towards upstream procurement is still held, and the price increase of fluorite market is limited.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, with the start of the downstream refrigeration industry’s stocking season, fluorite enterprises are gradually starting production, and some purchases have begun. Overall, the fluorite market price trend is expected to rise in the short term.

This week, the acrylic acid market broke the previous consolidation pattern and experienced a substantial price increase. Unlike the “profit recovery driven resumption of production” in mid to early February, the core driving force behind this round of price increases has shifted to the resonance between cost side restart and supply side tightness, and effective absorption has been formed through downstream rigid demand procurement. The market logic returns from “profit driven” to “cost driven+supply supported”. As of February 25th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6283.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the beginning of this month (6116.67 yuan/ton).
1、 Cost side:
This week, there has been a key change in the cost side: the price of raw material propylene has ended its previous stable trend and resumed its upward trend. On February 25th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6521.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.82% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
The renewed efforts on the cost side have directly compressed the profit margin of acrylic acid production, prompting production enterprises to raise their quotations to transmit cost pressure. The production enterprise quickly responded. On February 24th, the price of Shanghai Acrylic Acid East China was raised by 100 yuan/ton to 6100 yuan/ton; On February 25th, the company once again raised the price by 100 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton. The cumulative increase within two days is 200 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.33%. It is worth noting that the increase in the South China market is more significant, with the price of acrylic acid in the South China market rising directly from 6300 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 400 yuan/ton, reflecting the intensification of regional supply tightness.
2、 Supply side:
The supply side presents the characteristics of “high inventory and incremental digestion”. As of February 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylic acid industry remained at a high level of 85.94%, continuing to rise slightly compared to the previous week. This level of production indicates that the manufacturing enterprise has a strong willingness to resume production and has the ability to undertake current orders.
In terms of incremental production capacity, BASF Zhanjiang Integrated Base’s 400000 tons/year butyl acrylate plant has been fully put into operation in February. From the market performance, the release of this new production capacity has not suppressed prices, but has been effectively digested by downstream demand, confirming the resilience of demand.
It is worth noting that this week’s price increase was accompanied by a transaction characteristic of “actual order negotiation as the main focus”, indicating that sellers still maintain flexible bargaining space during the price increase process, and the market has not shown signs of overheating.
3、 Demand side:
The demand side presents a healthy transmission pattern of “upstream price increases, downstream price increases”.
On the one hand, essential procurement continues to exist. Although downstream users still hold a wait-and-see attitude, the pattern of “decent transactions” indicates that rigid demand has not shrunk due to price increases. On February 24th, the price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, indicating market capacity.
On the other hand, downstream derivatives are synchronously rising, providing support for upstream price increases. On February 24th, the price of ethyl acrylate in East China was increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton. The simultaneous increase in the quantity and price of downstream derivatives means that the cost transmission chain is smooth, and the purchasing willingness of producers is enhanced, forming a positive feedback on upstream acrylic acid.

In summary, the increase in acrylic acid prices this week is the result of the combined effects of rising costs, high supply, and demand absorption. The core transmission path is: the rebound of raw material propylene prices squeezes profit margins and drives production enterprises to raise their quotations; The supply side maintains high operating capacity, and new production capacity is smoothly digested; Downstream derivatives are rising, forming a positive transmission of the industrial chain. Unlike the previous “profit recovery driven resumption of production”, this round of price increases has shifted towards the logic of “cost push+supply support”. The future trend depends on whether the price of raw material propylene can continue to rise and the downstream capacity to undertake it.

1、 Market situation
This week, sulfur has shown an overall downward trend, but there have been sporadic increases. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 3873.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8% compared to the beginning of this month (4210.00 yuan/ton).
Regional performance: Refinery prices in Shandong, East China, North China, Central China, South China, and Northwest regions have mainly decreased (by 10-190 yuan/ton), with only sporadic increases; Prices in the southwest and northeast regions remain stable.
The market price of port sulfur has slightly increased. The winning bid price for domestic sulfur sales is 3960 yuan/ton, and the market boost effect is limited. However, on-site inquiries are active, and cargo holders are holding steady and watching. Port sulfur prices are consolidating upwards. In the short term, the port sulfur market is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern.
Downstream products: The price of sulfuric acid remains stable, with local increases (such as 10-40 yuan/ton in Shandong and Yunnan), and overall high-level consolidation, providing some support for sulfur demand but limited transmission. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 1030.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.74% compared to the beginning of this month (965.00 yuan/ton).
The markets for ammonium phosphate and titanium dioxide are mainly operating in a consolidated manner, with weak downstream demand. Enterprises rely on pending orders and cost support, resulting in insufficient indirect demand for sulfur.
2、 Influencing factors
1. The downward adjustment of quotations by domestic sulfur refineries reflects loose supply, while downstream enterprises (such as phosphate fertilizer and titanium dioxide industries) have basically finished pre holiday stocking, resulting in stagnant new order purchases and weakened demand support.
2. Port sulfur is supported by the control of cargo merchants, but actual transactions are limited, showing a “price but no market” characteristic; The failure of refinery bidding prices to effectively drive the market indicates a lack of actual demand support.
Although the price of sulfuric acid directly downstream of sulfur has risen locally, the trading of terminal products such as ammonium phosphate is light, and the transmission of the industrial chain is not smooth, which suppresses the upward space of sulfur.
3、 Future prospects
Domestic sulfur is expected to remain stable with small movements in the next trading day. Refineries may continue to make slight adjustments to their quotations under inventory pressure, but the decline may narrow. Short term high consolidation of port sulfur. Holders of goods have a strong willingness to raise prices, but weak demand will limit the upward space, and the market may enter a stalemate.
In summary, the overall sulfur market has been weak this week, with supply and demand fundamentals leading the downward trend in prices. However, the rising prices in the port sector have slowed down the decline, and the market needs to wait for the demand side to recover after the holiday to break the deadlock.

This week, the acrylic acid market maintained stable operation amidst the game of cost support and weak demand, and market sentiment tended to be cautious and optimistic. As of February 10th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
The current ‘stable’ state is a typical result of weak supply-demand balance, mainly reflected in two aspects:
On the cost side: Due to the strong price of the main raw material propylene, the production cost of acrylic acid remains high. If the selling price further drops, manufacturers will face losses, so they are determined to stabilize prices and set clear “floor prices” for the market. On February 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6437.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: Despite cost support, the recovery of demand in the end market is slow. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, only engaging in essential procurement without large-scale hoarding actions. This weak demand is like a ‘ceiling’, suppressing price increases.
Future prospects:
This fragile balance is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. The future market direction depends on the game of several key variables:
The traditional peak season of “Golden Three and Silver Four” after January is crucial. If the recovery of the real estate and consumer goods markets drives downstream demand to rebound beyond expectations, prices are expected to break through upwards.
2. The maintenance equipment in the early stage of the second quarter will resume production, and the output of newly added capacity will be more fully released. At that time, the supply pressure will significantly increase, which may suppress prices.
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line of acrylic acid. If there is a trend change in crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance.
In summary, the acrylic acid market showed initial signs of stabilization or even partial recovery in early February, but the foundation is not yet solid. For market participants, short-term operations should remain flexible and should not have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Strictly controlling inventory is still the best strategy. Medium – to long-term preparation requires being prepared for potential trend trends in the second quarter and closely monitoring the actual evolution of the key variables mentioned above.