chemicals news

Supply and demand game: Butadiene price rises first and then falls in September

lubon — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 03:19:29 +0000

In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with a wide range of fluctuations, with a monthly amplitude of 11.25%. The market price fluctuated from 13333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13466.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1%.
In September 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of first suppressing and then rising, with a fluctuating upward trend, and the price center of gravity rose overall during the month. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak trend at the end of the month, with prices briefly running at a low level. With the concentrated release of multiple positive factors in the middle and late of the month, the market rebounded from the bottom and the increase continued to expand. The core driving force behind this month’s market fluctuations is the phased adjustment of the supply and demand pattern, combined with fluctuations in raw material costs, concentrated installation maintenance, and seasonal recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, changes in market sentiment and trading mentality further amplify the market fluctuations, and overall break away from the previously weak operating pattern.
Cost aspect: In September, the upstream raw material market for butadiene showed a trend of first weak and then strong, which provided temporary support for the butadiene market and became an important auxiliary factor for market fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil and naphtha prices slightly fell, and the overall cost support for chemical raw materials weakened. While compressing the profit margin of the butadiene industry, it also dragged down market bullish sentiment, which was an important incentive for the low market prices at the beginning of the month. After entering the middle of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, and the price of naphtha rebounded in parallel. The upstream raw material cost center steadily shifted upward, providing a solid cost support for the butadiene market, effectively boosting the willingness of on-site traders and production enterprises to raise prices, and helping the market price rebound and rise. At the end of the month, raw material prices tend to stabilize, and there is no significant fluctuation in the cost side. The market situation then enters a high-level consolidation state, and the driving effect of the cost side on the market tends to be flat. Overall, the cost trend this month is highly synchronized with the butadiene market, with periodic cost fluctuations dominating the short-term market rhythm. As of September 28th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.60 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $97.83 per barrel.
Supply side:
The supply side of the butadiene market in September showed a phased characteristic of loose at the beginning of the month, contraction in the middle of the month, and recovery at the end of the month, which was the core factor driving the rise and fall of the entire month’s market. At the beginning of the month, the overall operation of domestic butadiene production facilities was stable, and the industry operating rate remained high. There was sufficient supply of spot goods on the market, and traders had high inventory pressure. The market showed a pattern of oversupply, and companies generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions, resulting in sustained weak price fluctuations at the beginning of the month. The market supply pattern in the middle of the month has undergone a significant change, with multiple main production and cracking units in China entering a period of maintenance and load reduction. Some regional units have temporarily stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. The circulation of spot resources in the market continues to tighten, and the tight supply situation has become prominent, forming strong and favorable support, and driving prices to rise rapidly. At the end of the month, the maintenance equipment has gradually resumed production and restarted, and the industry’s operating rate has slightly rebounded. The market supply of goods has gradually increased, and the tense situation has been eased. The favorable situation on the supply side has subsided, resulting in a slowdown in market growth and entering a high-level game stage.

Demand side:
The downstream demand in September showed a seasonal rebound and phased release, providing core demand support for the upward trend of the market. Butadiene is mainly used for downstream synthetic rubber ABS、 At the beginning of the month, industries such as rubber and plastic maintained stable production, while terminal tire and plastic product companies mainly focused on restocking for essential needs. The demand for centralized stocking has not yet started, and market demand follow-up is weak, making it difficult to drive price increases. Coupled with high price resistance, the overall performance of the demand side is flat. With the gradual manifestation of the traditional peak season effect in the middle of the month, downstream industries have steadily rebounded in production, and terminal enterprises have concentrated their pre holiday stocking demand. The activity of essential procurement has greatly increased, and the tight supply of goods in the market continues to be digested. The supply-demand mismatch pattern has further intensified, strongly driving the rebound of butadiene prices. At the end of the month, the downstream stocking pace gradually slowed down. After the concentrated replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of downstream enterprises was replenished, and their acceptance of high priced sources of butadiene decreased. Purchasing tended to be cautious, and they mostly adhered to the mentality of taking goods according to demand. The market transaction pace slowed down, and the marginal support from the demand side weakened, and the market situation stabilized and consolidated accordingly.
Market forecast:
From the perspective of comprehensive costs, supply and demand, and market sentiment, the domestic butadiene market is likely to maintain a high volatility, stable to strong operating pattern in the short term, with limited unilateral upward and downward momentum in the market. On the supply side, the increase in the resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the early stage is relatively limited, and the overall short-term market spot supply is still tight, which forms a bottom support for prices; The overall stability of crude oil and naphtha prices on the cost side, with no significant downward risk, continues to support the market trend. From the demand side, there is still some room for downstream pre holiday stocking demand to continue, and the support of terminal rigid demand has not completely subsided. There are still positive factors on the short-term demand side. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant about potential risks in the future. As the equipment continues to resume work, market supply will gradually increase, and downstream stocking demand may gradually decline. The follow-up efforts for essential needs will weaken, and the market supply and demand pattern may change again at that time. There is a possibility of periodic market correction and consolidation. Overall, the future market needs to focus on tracking fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, changes in domestic plant operation, and follow-up on downstream terminal demand.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

After the price of propylene glycol surged, it fell back and the long short game intensified

lubon — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 01:49:49 +0000

In September 2026, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market experienced a severe fluctuation of “sharp rise and fall”. In the first half of September, driven by the strong rise of raw material epoxy propane, the price of propylene glycol quickly rose. In the second half of the month, the market quickly fell back with the decline of epoxy propane. As of September 28th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% from mid month and an increase of 1.77% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Cost side: Epoxy propane “inverted V” market transmission, supporting the shift from strong to strong
Epoxy propane (PO) is the most essential cost source of propylene glycol. In September, the epoxy propane market experienced a typical “inverted V” trend: at the beginning of the month, it rose steadily under the dual drive of strong cost side price increases and tight supply, but after mid month, the epoxy propane price quickly fell back. The sudden loosening of the cost side directly led to the loss of the most important price support for propylene glycol, causing a rapid decline in the market in the second half of the month.
Supply side: Centralized resumption of maintenance equipment and realization of incremental expectations
The logic of “spot tightness” that supported prices in the early stage reversed in the second half of the month, and the total supply remained loose compared to the first half.
On the demand side: Jinjiu fails, with urgent needs as the main focus
The weekly operating rate of downstream UPR (unsaturated resin) is only about 33%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, but the absolute operating rate is at a low level; The polyether sector has a stable but slightly loose offer, with manufacturers secretly lowering prices to promote orders, and downstream demand for immediate use and procurement; Antifreeze is still in the off-season; The expectation of stocking up before National Day and Mid Autumn Festival has not been fulfilled, and both traders and downstream are “waiting for a drop to stock up”. Export orders are also temporarily suspended and waiting for a price reduction; The consumption of terminal building materials and coatings is weak, and the acceptance of high priced sources is poor.
Market forecast: Weak pressure, center of gravity may shift slightly downwards
Overall, the short-term propylene glycol market is facing multiple pressures. On the cost side, epoxy propane has entered a downward channel after experiencing a surge, and the center of gravity is expected to continue to slightly shift downwards in October, further weakening cost support. On the supply side, the September maintenance equipment has basically resumed production, and coupled with the expectation of concentrated release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, the pressure of supply increment will continue to exist. On the demand side, downstream stocking efforts are limited before and after the National Day holiday, and the peak season characteristics are likely to continue to be weaker than expected, with rigid procurement remaining the main tone. It is expected that the price center of propylene glycol will further shift downwards in early October, but the potential for a deep decline is limited by the bottom line support of raw material costs.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

This week, magnesium prices have fallen step by step

lubon — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 03:18:59 +0000

This week (9.17-9.24), the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fell, with an average market price of 15900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15800 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.63%.
The following analysis is based on fundamentals:
From fundamental data, prices stabilized horizontally from September 17th to 20th, but fell continuously for three days starting from September 21st. The market frequently indicates a “low level”, reflecting weak downstream demand and insufficient purchasing willingness, resulting in a pattern of oversupply and pressure on spot prices. As of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the price has stabilized at 15800 yuan/ton, with a slight slowdown in the downward trend.
Supply and demand side
The marginal reduction in supply side production has weakened, and the cost inversion has supported the bottom. Some magnesium factories in the main production area of Fugu have started to reduce production, and the reduction in production has significantly narrowed compared to the previous week, with a marginal decline in supply contraction. But most magnesium factories are in a state of severe cost inversion, with factories controlling the pace of shipments and scarce low-priced sources. The raw materials of blue charcoal and 75 silicon iron continue to be weak, and cost support continues to weaken.
The demand side urgently needs support, but the peak season falls short. Downstream magnesium alloy die-casting enterprises mainly consume their own inventory, and maintain sporadic replenishment of inventory as needed. The characteristics of the “Golden September” peak season have not yet emerged. In terms of exports, due to the slower than expected recovery of overseas demand and high sea freight rates, the follow-up of foreign trade orders is slow, which has limited impact on domestic prices. The long-term replacement logic of aluminum alloy addition and magnesium alloy lightweighting is still in place, but the short-term increment is insufficient.
integrated forecasting
The current magnesium market lacks favorable support in terms of fundamentals, and the technical aspect is in a bearish dominant stage. It is expected that magnesium prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term, and close attention should be paid to the support strength of the 15800 yuan/ton mark and the recovery of downstream demand.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

The lithium iron phosphate market is stable with small fluctuations, and the price is running narrowly and weakly

lubon — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 03:20:15 +0000

1、 Price trend
As of September 23rd, the price of high-performance power type lithium iron phosphate is 52166 yuan/ton, with current transaction prices ranging from 52200 to 55500 yuan/ton for power type lithium iron phosphate and 51800 to 53000 yuan/ton for energy storage type lithium iron phosphate; The benchmark price fell from 56700 yuan/ton in early September to 52000 yuan/ton, with two consecutive weekly declines. Looking at the longer period, the average price of power type in the third quarter of 2025 was only 35771 yuan/ton and energy storage type was 29000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter of 2026, it surged to 58178 yuan/ton for power type and 57016 yuan/ton for energy storage type, with increases of 63% and 97% respectively; The highest point of the year was in June, with the power type reaching 67000 yuan/ton at one point.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of cost, the cost of lithium iron phosphate is composed of lithium carbonate (60% -65%) and iron phosphate processing fees (30% -35%). For every 10000 yuan/ton increase in lithium carbonate, the cost of the positive electrode increases by about 2300-2500 yuan/ton. Under the pricing model of “raw material cost+fixed processing fee”, long-term agreements negotiate on a monthly basis, and there is a delay in the daily rise and fall of lithium prices to the finished product end. Therefore, there has been a differentiation in recent times, with lithium carbonate rebounding by 3.8% in a single day and lithium iron quotations weakening in the opposite direction.
Lithium salt end: On September 22, battery grade lithium carbonate was in stock at 129800 to 139000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 134300 yuan/ton. Futures main LC2701 closed at 134500 yuan/ton, up 2.61%, and continued to decline before stopping. In mid May, it reached a high of 209800 yuan/ton and fell to a low of 128080 yuan/ton on September 11, with a pullback of more than 40%. Since September, spot prices have fallen by more than 20%.
In terms of demand: Power end: In August 2026, domestic power batteries will be installed at 79.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, including 67.6 GWh of lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 85.6%, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%; From January to August, a total of 489.1 GWh of vehicles were loaded, with 402.7 GWh of lithium iron, accounting for 82.3%, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.
The market share trend is very stable: 74.4% in 2024 → 81.2% in 2025 → 82.3% from January to August 2026. There has been no sustained reverse decline in any quarter for the past three years. The 11.0GWh of Sanyuan, owned by Li Ning De Times, accounts for 66.8% and has retreated to long range, high-end models, and low-temperature scenarios.
The energy storage end is the real engine: In August, the sales volume of energy storage batteries was 76.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 114.3% and a month on month increase of 36.0%, accounting for 34.2% of the total sales volume. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was 450.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, with a growth rate more than twice that of power batteries (38.7%). The operating rate of energy storage batteries in August was 87.36%, a month on month increase of 1.28 percentage points. Large battery cells with 500Ah capacity were fully mass-produced (Ningde Times 587Ah, Yiwei 628Ah, Guoxuan 588Ah), all centered around the iron lithium system, leaving almost no room for ternary space.

http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market maintained high and stable in September

lubon — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 01:20:33 +0000

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market maintained a high and stable operation in September. As of September 22nd, the benchmark price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (battery grade) is 115500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
2、 Raw material end: The core raw materials for lithium hexafluorophosphate are lithium carbonate, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, phosphorus pentachloride, and lithium fluoride. In the first half of the year, the average purchase price of major raw materials increased comprehensively, with lithium carbonate rising by 12%, lithium fluoride rising by 16%, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rising by 18%, and phosphorus pentachloride rising by 19%. Although the spot price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly in September and the cost center shifted downwards, the prices of lithium fluoride and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride remained high, providing strong cost support for lithium hexafluorophosphate. As of September 22, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (battery grade) was 134000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the beginning of this month (156000.00 yuan/ton).
3、 Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises has basically reached full capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a high level of over 90%, and the global production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to reach 372000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
4、 Demand side: Downstream demand is strong, and energy storage has become the core growth engine. Driven by the trend of high-end development, the increase in single vehicle charging capacity supports the sustained growth of installed capacity for power batteries; Energy storage batteries are driven by new electricity consumption scenarios such as AI data centers, and their growth rate continues to be higher than that of power batteries, becoming the core incremental source of electrolyte demand. Downstream electrolyte companies have full orders and production schedules continue to increase month on month, providing strong support for the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate.
5、 Market forecast: The short-term tight supply-demand balance pattern continues, and with the deepening of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, it is expected that prices will maintain a strong operation; If the newly added production capacity in the fourth quarter is released as scheduled, the increase may be suppressed to a certain extent, and the overall trend is expected to show the characteristics of “tight supply and demand, and rational price operation”.

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