chemicals news » lubon

Acrylonitrile market stops falling and consolidates

lubon — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 01:37:35 +0000

This week, the supply side continued to shrink, with major factories operating at low loads and spot market prices stabilizing. As of June 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10200-10300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 9900-10050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
Market Overview: The overall market quotation remained stable during the week, with buying orders following up as needed, and the downward trend in prices temporarily suspended. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has once again declined, the supply side continues to shrink, and cost pressure continues to exist. Low price spot resources on the market are gradually being digested, and buying in the spot market is following suit, partly for export demand and partly for low-level replenishment. The sales pressure on suppliers has eased and inventory has decreased, thus stabilizing prices overall. However, the market or temporary bottoming out is the main factor, and the rebound momentum is still insufficient.
Supply side:
During the week, Jilin Petrochemical reduced its load to 80%, and the supply side continued to shrink. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 5-11) was 66.67%, a decrease of 4.37% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 77800 tons, which is 0.51 million tons higher than the previous cycle. During the week, the supply decreased again, with both the north and south facilities experiencing a decrease in negative load. At the same time, buying orders followed suit, and some companies’ inventory decreased. According to statistics, as of June 11th, the total inventory was about 46000 tons, an increase of -0.2 million tons from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.1%, a decrease of -0.9% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 74%, an increase of 13.37% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 53.28%, an increase of -0.9% compared to last week. Overall, the operating load of the ABS and acrylamide industries has decreased, and the overall downstream demand remains weak.
Cost aspect:
During the week, the raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, while at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile stopped falling, which improved the situation of acrylonitrile production losses. According to statistics, as of June 12th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 8840-8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton from last week’s 9050-9060 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11156 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -1.96%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -905 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of+54 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the overall downstream demand is still weak. Recently, except for the acrylic fiber industry, which has shown an improvement in production, other downstream areas such as ABS and acrylamide have continued to decline in production due to sluggish demand. The overall consumption situation is still not optimistic, so the market is mainly experiencing a temporary bottoming out, and the rebound power is still insufficient.

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The price of butadiene rubber continues to fall and remains weak and volatile in the short term

lubon — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 01:29:22 +0000

In June, the domestic price of butadiene rubber continued to fall, and the market’s long short game intensified. Whether the market hit bottom has become the focus of industry attention. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of domestic butadiene rubber in East China has fallen to 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.69% compared to the price before the outbreak of the US Iran conflict, and a decrease of 24.92% from the high point of 18140 yuan/ton in early April.
This round of decline is mainly dragged down by raw materials. Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to weaken, directly lowering the industry’s cost center. Coupled with the spread of pessimistic market sentiment, the price of butadiene has declined accordingly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the price of butadiene was 10486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.32% from the high point of 18833 yuan/ton since the Middle East conflict. The current market price is close to the industry’s cash cost line, and most production enterprises are hovering at the break even point. Continuing to significantly reduce prices will force equipment to reduce production, and the cost side will build a solid bottom support.
The overall supply side presents a relaxed pattern. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants remains high, coupled with the gradual release of some new production capacity, the market supply of goods is steadily increasing. As of June 4th, the construction of Shunding Rubber started at around 6.70%. At the same time, the amount of imported goods arriving at the port has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated slightly, which to some extent suppresses the rebound of spot prices. However, after the concentrated selling in the early stage, the low-priced supply in the market gradually decreased, and the panic selling pressure has been basically released.
The demand side remains the core factor restricting the rebound of the market. June to July is the traditional off-season for the tire industry, with domestic tire factories maintaining low operating rates, and both semi steel and all steel tire operating data showing lackluster performance. As of June 10th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 70%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.80%. The enterprise only focuses on essential procurement and has a low willingness to replenish raw materials. In addition, changes in the overseas trade environment have also put pressure on tire export orders, making it difficult for downstream overall demand to show outstanding performance.
Market forecast:
From the spot price and moving average chart of butadiene rubber, it can be seen that from May to early May 2026, the price of butadiene rubber showed a unilateral downward trend, and the price remained below the moving averages on the 10th and 20th. The moving averages were bearish, and the downward trend continued and accelerated in the later period.

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Shortage of supply: The market for diethylene glycol continues to strengthen

lubon — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 01:58:38 +0000

On June 10th, the supply side remained tight, and the market price center remained firm, with sporadic quotes in the spot market. The mainstream market spot price in East China closed at 7160 yuan/ton,+40 yuan/ton; The South China market closed at 7300 yuan/ton,+50 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $874/ton,+6 $/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Unit: The 800000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit in Hainan will start shutdown and maintenance over the weekend, and is expected to continue until November. The 750000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be scheduled for maintenance and shutdown starting from yesterday, with an expected shutdown time of about 10 days. A 280000 ton/year ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol unit of Sinopec will be shut down and maintained last weekend; Individual facilities in Iran have restarted, while three sets of facilities in Taiwan and Malaysia have restarted, releasing signals for the early shutdown of facilities due to raw materials.
Supply: Short term low load operation of domestic facilities, no substantial progress in ocean freight sources, and overall supply is still relatively low. As of June 8th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 12600 tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. This week (June 9-15), there are no plans for Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol to arrive at the port. Downstream orders are lukewarm, with many urgent purchases, and the main ports in East China maintain the expectation of destocking.
Demand: Downstream polyester and unsaturated resin are operating at low load. According to statistics, as of June 4th, the average operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin factories is 32%, which is the same as the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from June 5th to June 7th, a total of 637 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of 212 tons. On June 9th, the total shipment volume from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 367 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous day, and the performance of port pickup further contracted.
Market outlook: Currently, the supply and demand of the diethylene glycol market are weak, with downstream demand dominating prices, especially the poor performance of north-south demand. Short term prices are still strong spot prices with weak expectations, and are subject to wide fluctuations due to emotions. Forward prices will further expand, with a focus on the follow-up of downstream demand, the substantial opening of the Strait of Hormuz in ceasefire negotiations, the efficiency of crude oil and imported cargo output, and the recovery level after the destruction of foreign facilities.

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Lithium carbonate prices plummet by 18%

lubon — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:45:48 +0000

Recently, lithium carbonate has experienced a sharp decline. As of June 9th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 162000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 18% from the previous high of 199000 yuan/ton (May 12th). The comprehensive disintegration of the positive logic on the supply side, the concentrated release of inventory pressure, and multiple factors jointly promote the reversal of market trends.
Sudden changes in inventory data are the core logic that triggers price declines
Previously, the market generally used “low inventory and tight supply” as the bullish core logic, but recently the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has continued to soar, reaching 56000 tons on June 3, equivalent to half a month’s total domestic production. Affected by the fact that spot prices are lower than futures prices, holders of goods have registered spot goods as warehouse receipt arbitrage. At the same time, the market reaction shows that the quality of warehouse receipts is poor, unable to meet production needs, weak purchasing intentions, and further accumulation of warehouse receipts, forming a vicious cycle of “price decline – warehouse receipt increase – price further decline”.
Overseas lithium mine supply resumes, reversing market concerns about raw material shortages
In February of this year, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of lithium concentrate exports, which caused market panic and led to a surge in lithium prices. However, since mid May, locally approved Chinese enterprises have been shipping lithium mines one after another, and the actual supply reduction is much lower than market expectations. Australia is also accelerating the release of production capacity. Bald Hill lithium mine under Mineral Resources announced the resumption of production, and spodumene concentrate can be produced in July, with a much faster resumption rate than previously predicted by institutions. Stimulated by high prices, multiple lithium mines around the world have accelerated their resumption of production. The market’s previous panic about lithium mine supply cuts has completely dissipated, and the tight supply premium has quickly fallen back.
Energy storage demand dividend supports the bottom of lithium prices
The new energy vehicle market presents a pattern of “quantity reduction, unit consumption increase”. In May, the estimated wholesale of new energy vehicles by passenger car manufacturers nationwide reached 1.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month on month increase of 11%, barely maintaining a slight increase in the total installed capacity of power batteries. The industry is no longer able to achieve explosive growth in lithium demand solely based on sales volume. As the largest incremental demand for energy storage, it is the core catalyst for the early recovery of lithium carbonate. At present, the top battery companies are basically in full production, and some companies’ orders have been scheduled until early next year. Both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of battery cell production scheduling, there is a strong demand for energy storage projects, which are currently not sensitive to material prices and provide bottom support.
Overall, the current decline in lithium carbonate is the result of a synchronous shift in supply and inventory logic. However, the strong demand for new energy vehicles and explosive growth in energy storage demand may limit the downward space for lithium prices. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the speed of new supply landing in the third quarter and the sustained ability of energy storage demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

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On June 8th, the supply of asphalt in Shandong province declined, and market prices continued to rise

lubon — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 01:45:09 +0000

Recently, the overall domestic asphalt market has shown a strong upward trend, driven by refinery production cuts and maintenance, as well as a significant reduction in supply. The market supply has fallen to a new low, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand, which has driven the asphalt market prices to continue to rise. The overall situation is characterized by tight supply and firm prices.
Recently, the domestic asphalt market has shown a trend of low supply and high prices, with market supply once again breaking historical lows, and spot and futures prices continuing to rise. Data shows that the current comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is only 13.6%, hitting a historical low. The weekly production has decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the overall available spot resources are very scarce.
The core reason for the significant contraction in supply is the concentrated maintenance of multiple refineries, coupled with the conversion of some units to residual oil, and the loss of processing profits and low production willingness of refineries. In June, the production schedule of local refineries decreased significantly year-on-year and month on month. The demand side is showing a trend of differentiation, with better weather in the north, steady progress in infrastructure and road construction, and a rebound in downstream essential procurement, providing strong support for prices.
At present, the imbalance between supply and demand in the market continues. Although the rainy season in the south has to some extent suppressed terminal construction, the overall demand resilience is still acceptable. In the short term, the low-level supply pattern of asphalt is difficult to improve quickly, and the shortage of supply will continue. The market price is expected to remain high and fluctuate.

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